137Cs in freshwater fish in Finland since 1986 – a statistical analysis with multivariate linear regression models

The accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in 1986 significantly elevated the 137Cs levels of fish in Finnish lakes. About 6200 fish samples from 390 lakes comprising 20 species have been analysed for 137Cs since 1986. The sizes of the lakes varied from a few hectares to about 1000 km2. Activity concentrations of 137Cs in fish still varied widely in 2003, from 16 to 6400 Bq/kg fresh weight. This paper presents the results of statistical analyses with multivariate linear regression models carried out on the empirical data collected since 1986. The statistical analysis resulted in separate models for two time periods describing temporal changes of 137Cs in fish. The explanatory variables were fish species with various feeding habits, the size class of the lake, municipal division, drainage area, time since the deposition and deposition level of the municipality. The calculated values for 137Cs in fish did not differ statistically significantly from the observed values in the validation data. The explanatory variables explained 58% (the first time period) and 72% (the second time period) of the total variability of 137Cs in fish.