Abstract :
In an increasingly dangerous world, forecasting national leaders’ decisions
during crises is a central concern of policy analysts. But with a wide
range of specific military responses available to leaders, pinpointing a
likely decision can be difficult. This essay argues that the poliheuristic
theory of foreign policy decision making is a useful tool for aiding policy
analysts in forecasting the decisions of national leaders. The theory’s
emphasis on a noncompensatory decision dimension facilitates the elimination
of many of the possible decision alternatives, reducing uncertainty.
Then, surviving alternatives are weighed against additional,
nontrivial dimensions, producing a likely decision. As an illustrative
case, I examine Carter’s decision to implement the hostage rescue mission,
demonstrating that Carter ruled out alternatives that failed to satisfy
criteria on the noncompensatory decision dimensionFreelection.
The president’s final choice was selected from the remaining alternatives
according to its ability to simultaneously maximize net benefits with
respect to military and strategic concerns. Following a comparison of the
analysis with compensatory models of decision making, I suggest a general
forecasting framework rooted in the poliheuristic theory. The theory
can be applied to international crises provided that policy analysts
obtain information concerning (1) the leader’s noncompensatory decision
criteria, (2) the set of alternatives that satisfy those criteria, and (3)
the expected net benefits of the remaining alternatives on other dimensions
(i.e., the military and strategic dimensions).
