The Futures of Conflict: Exploring the Use of Comparative Scenarios in Track II Peacebuilding

This paper develops a prototype for a new type of conflict analysis tool designed to be used as part of a Track II peacebuilding process. The tool, termed Conflict Analysis through the Structured Evaluation of Scenarios (CASES), provides information on relevant comparative cases by systematically analyzing cases from the Minorities at Risk (MAR) data set. From these 285 groups in the data set, the CASES report identifies five comparison cases, designed to illuminate potential future trajectories of the subject case, the Kurds. In the CASES report, each of the comparison cases represents a scenario, a possible future of the subject case. The report therefore contains five brief narratives that describe the Kurdish case as if they were the subject cases. The report is designed to be used as part of a Track II peacebuilding process.