Arms and Escalation in Ethnic Conflicts: The Case of Sri Lanka

The impact of changes in arms acquisitions on subsequent escalation and de-escalation of ethnic conflicts is examined. The role of arms in civil wars has generally been neglected, perhaps because the role seems obvious, or because of the tendency of scholars to focus on the outbreak or end of ethnic conflict, rather than its middle course. Six arms scenarios are produced by the combination of actions taken by the government and an armed opposition group or groups. These scenarios are associated with subsequent escalation or de-escalation of violence. The plausibility and complexity of these relationships in specific contexts are illustrated by examining the Sri Lankan civil war, from the start of the conflict in 1983 through the cease-fire in 2002, an agreement that has subsequently become shaky. In Sri Lanka, arms acquisitions generally preceded expansions in the conflict. Additionally, evidence is found to suggest that internal arms races can occur and affect the course of war: the Sri Lankan military and the Tamil Tigers qualitatively raced over the use of air power, for example. Better data collection on arms acquisitions within ethnic conflicts and additional case studies are suggested, but this preliminary research points to an important role for arms in ethnic conflict dynamics.