Abstract :
As the color revolutions have stalled and the challenge to democracy by
authoritarianism has increased, it is essential to explore the potential of
a new ‘‘reverse wave’’ which may create a greater balance between liberalism
and autocracy. This article seeks to begin this process by outlining
a framework of authoritarian diffusion. Two key diffusion dynamics are
outlined: appropriateness, the impact of changes in the relative normative
power of democracy/autocracy, and effectiveness, how the successes
of authoritarian countries increase the chances that others will see
them as role models. A number of contributing factors are also identified,
which make these processes more or less likely. These include:
geography, linkage, international organizations, great power prestige,
and reference groups. If we are to understand the future strength of
authoritarianism as a global or regional phenomenon, which affects,
reinforces, and aggravates domestic conditions, then a new theoretical
framework is necessary.
