Analysis of environmental effects of prospective trade agreements: the forest products ATL as a case study in the science–policy interface

In the past few decades, the interaction between commodity trade and environmental conditions in both exporting and importing countries has received increasing attention. Recognition of accumulating and expanding environmental consequences of economic activity coincides with an increase in the absolute value and relative importance of trade in the global economy. Therefore, efforts to further reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade are prospectively attractive economic policies and, at the same time, potentially problematic from the perspective of environmental policy objectives. As is the case with many contemporary policy debates, the trade and environment debate is frequently characterized by rhetoric and advocacy of positions. Although examination of the consequences of specific trade policies is complicated by the nature of trade negotiations, opportunities exist to use science in formulating and evaluating policies. In the late 1990s, the forest sector was one of eight sectors targeted for accelerated tariff reduction. In response to concerns about the environmental consequences of the initiative, the US government conducted a first-of-its kind, quantitative study of the economic and environmental effects of the trade policy initiative on the forest sector. Although the multi-sector initiative was not implemented, successful completion of the analysis contributed to policy deliberations in a highly-charged atmosphere (during preparations for the 1999 World Trade Organization Ministerial meeting in Seattle). Demonstration of the ability to provide relevant, technically-credible results is among the factors providing support for the idea of environmental review of future US trade agreements. Therefore, the process and the results of the review of this trade initiative provide a useful case study in the science–policy interface.