Financial optimisation of target diameter harvest of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) considering the risk of decrease of timber quality due to red heartwood

A mature, average stand of European beech was generated based on characteristic data of trial plots. Some 27 different strategies of target diameter harvest, were simulated for up to 80 years with the help of a distance-dependent single-tree growth simulator. The treatments were differing in the size of the target diameter, the beginning and the end of the harvest. Based on a statistical model, the probability of the occurrence of more than 30% of red heartwood at the front-side diameter was calculated for three sections of each log. Using the predicted probability, the decrease of timber quality due to red heartwood for different treatment strategies was assessed. The harvested volume and the predicted timber quality for different harvesting strategies were used to calculate the net revenue achieved in each simulation period with the help of a calculation program. The net present value for variable interest rates of the different harvesting strategies was calculated, assuming free land rent. Using a linear programming approach, optimal areas for different treatment strategies of a modelled forest of 100 ha were calculated under 4 different scenarios. The results of the optimisation showed how the increasing interest rates replaced higher target diameters out of the optimal solution. In contrast to that the treatments with higher target diameter became more important with increasing restrictions concerning budget or ecological constraints.