Unplanned land clearing of Colombian rainforests: Spreading like disease?

Deforestation often occurs as temporal waves and in localized fronts termed ‘deforestation hotspots’ driven by economic pulses and population pressure. Of particular concern for conservation planning are ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where high concentrations of endemic species undergo rapid loss and fragmentation of habitat. We investigate the deforestation process in Caquetá, a biodiversity hotspot and major colonization front of the Colombian Amazon using multi-temporal satellite imagery of the periods 1989–1996–1999–2002. The probabilities of deforestation and regeneration were modeled against soil fertility, accessibility and neighborhood terms, using logistic regression analysis. Deforestation and regeneration patterns and rates were highly variable across the colonization front. The regional average annual deforestation rate was 2.6%, but varied locally between −1.8% (regeneration) and 5.3%, with maximum rates in landscapes with 40–60% forest cover and highest edge densities, showing an analogous pattern to the spread of disease. Soil fertility and forest and secondary vegetation neighbors showed positive and significant relationships with the probability of deforestation. For forest regeneration, soil fertility had a significant negative effect while the other parameters were marginally significant. The logistic regression models across all periods showed a high level of discrimination power for both deforestation and forest regeneration, with ROC values >0.80. We document the effect of policies and institutional changes on the land clearing process, such as the failed peace process between government and guerillas in 1999–2002, which redirected the spread of deforestation and increased forest regeneration. The implications for conservation in biologically rich areas, such as Caquetá are discussed.