Where does the coast sprawl the most? Trajectories of residential development and sprawl in coastal North Carolina, 1971–2000

High levels of population growth in coastal U.S. settings give cause for concern about developmentʹs effects. Urban sprawl, a potential manifestation of development, is known for its negative environmental and social impacts; however, there have been few efforts to define and measure it in coastal regions where beach-oriented tourism and amenity-driven population growth and land development are prominent. This study describes residential expansion patterns and identifies trajectories for a set of sprawl metrics in New Hanover County, North Carolina over a 30-year time period. Using parcel data and GIS techniques, I developed a set of metrics for nine townships that nest within three township groups classified as: most coastal, transitional, and least coastal. Metrics measuring land consumption, leapfrog distance, land use diversity, and highway strip development are quantified and compared across regions. Most of the metrics were weakly correlated with each other suggesting that they capture different dimensions of sprawl. Results demonstrate that transitional settings located near estuaries between the oceanfront and the interior mainland were consistently the most sprawling. Behaviors of many metrics had complex, non-linear trajectories that would be invisible using either a cross-sectional or two-date approach. The approach can be extended to other regions, both coastal and non-coastal, to determine if there are differences in sprawl patterns that are unique to other environments.