Shenzhen: coping with uncertainties in planning

In the transition in China from a centrally controlled system of planning and development, the uncertainties inherent in a market economy were not acknowledged. This paper is concerned to (a) review briefly the development of Shenzhen 1980–2000, (b) explore the ways in which Shenzhen addressed the issue of uncertainty in planning and implementing development since its inception in 1980 and (c) suggest ways in which it might address the uncertainties currently facing its future development. It finds that in the past both a pragmatic “learn as you go” approach and an “experimental learning” approach have been adopted in dealing with different aspects of uncertainty. It speculates that a similar approach is likely to be adopted in the future although, as the market economy becomes embedded in the system and disagreements are articulated concerning the objectives sought through the planning and development processes, a form of distributional bargaining may also develop. It concludes that since its inception (a) Shenzhen has acted contingently and rationally in addressing the different problem conditions faced in developing and implementing strategies for growth, (b) the approach has led to the successful development of a major high quality city in a very short period of time and (c) this success could continue if an appropriate contingent approach is sustained.