Dispersion modelling of dioxin releases from the waste incinerator at Avonmouth, Bristol, UK

A modified Gaussian atmospheric dispersion model, Industrial Source Complex (ISCST3), is used to estimate toxic equivalent ground level concentrations (GLC) of dioxins emitted from the Avonmouth municipal waste incinerator (MWI) in Bristol, UK. The sensitivity of the predicted GLC to various vapour and particle partitioning scenarios is reported. Predictions incorporating local terrain and actual emission data are used to estimate the mean incremental intake of dioxin due to MWI operation for local residents, through an existing multi-pathway human exposure model. Results are compared with predictions of incremental intake for a generalised MWI. The mean incremental dioxin intake for a hypothetical maximum exposed individual (HMEI) is shown to be up to 46.5% of the background intake compared to only 1.14% for the generalised MWI scenario. This indicates that the use of local terrain and emission data in MWI dispersion modelling is crucial for health risk assessments associated with human dioxin intake, especially in view of the current debate over the tolerable daily intake for dioxins