Sensitivity of nitrogen dioxide concentrations to oxides of nitrogen controls in the United Kingdom

There is a possibility of further controls on emissions to the atmosphere of nitrogen oxides to meet air quality objectives in the UK. Data in the National Air Quality Archive were used to calculate the likely sensitivity of hourly concentrations of nitrogen dioxide in ambient urban air to changes in the total oxides of nitrogen. Since the role of atmospheric chemical reactions is to make the response non-linearly dependent on the emissions control, we seek to establish the magnitude and sign of the effects that this non-linearity might cause. We develop a quantitative approach to analysing the non-linearity in the data. Polynomial curve fits have been developed for the empirical ratio NO2 : NOx (the ‘yield’). They describe nitrogen dioxide concentrations using total oxides of nitrogen. The new functions have the important feature of increased yield in winter episodes. Simpler functions tend to omit this feature of the yields at the highest hourly concentrations. Based on this study, the hourly nitrogen dioxide objective in the UK may require emissions control of no more than ≈50% on total oxides of nitrogen at the most polluted sites: other sites require less or even no control.