Effects of temperature and land use on predictions of biogenic emissions in Eastern Texas, USA

Accurate estimates of biogenic volatile organic compound emissions are critical for air quality planning in areas such as Eastern Texas where biogenic emissions comprise a significant fraction of the total volatile organic compound inventory. Uncertainties in biogenic volatile organic chemical emission estimates associated with different land use databases, surface temperature databases, and temperature interpolation methods were quantified and compared. The sensitivity of isoprene emissions to land use classification was investigated by comparing predictions based on land use data recently compiled for Eastern Texas to those based on the Biogenic Emissions Landcover Database version 3.1 (BELD3). Previous studies have only made these comparisons with the previous BELD version 2 database. Isoprene emission increased throughout much of Eastern Texas because areas classified as agricultural or savannah in BELD3 were more accurately classified as Post Oak, Live Oak, mesquite, and juniper in the new database. These results indicate the need for land use studies in areas poorly characterized in the BELD3. The sensitivity of isoprene emission estimates to uncertainties in surface temperatures were investigated by comparing predictions based on two different temperature databases and three different interpolation techniques. Spatial interpolations of surface temperatures collected at available Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) stations in Houston, Austin, and Dallas were similar to the spatial interpolations of surface temperatures obtained from the ETA Data Assimilation System (EDAS). As a result, substantial variations in isoprene emissions were not observed over the majority of the modeling domain; however, differences of 4 F over localized regions produced a 35% difference in isoprene emissions. Comparisons between the isoprene emissions of the three interpolation methods sometimes revealed large variations, with maximum temperature differences of 4 F resulting in 60% differences in isoprene emissions in areas with the highest isoprene emissions. It was noted that the ASOS stations were clustered in urban areas and not in areas with the highest biogenic emissions. More ambient temperature monitors need to be located in rural locations to provide robust estimates of biogenic emissions and facilitate validation of interpolated temperature fields.