Dispersion modelling of a wintertime particulate pollution episode in Christchurch, New Zealand

This paper examines the inter-suburb dispersion of particulate air pollution in Christchurch, New Zealand, during a wintertime particulate pollution episode. The dispersion is simulated using the RAMS/CALMET/CALPUFF modelling system, with data from a detailed emissions inventory of home heating, motor vehicles and industry. During the period 27 July–1 August 1995, peak 1 h and 24 h PM10 concentrations of 368 and 107 μg m−3, respectively, were observed. Peak concentrations occurred at night, when particulate emissions from wood- and coal-burning domestic heating appliances were at a maximum and emitted into a stable boundary layer. The model is generally able to reproduce the observed PM10 time series recorded at surface monitors located throughout the urban area. For this simulation, the fractional gross error ranges between 0.69 and 0.99, and the fractional bias ranges between −0.17 and 0.30. Strong horizontal concentration gradients of 100 μg m−3 km−1, both in the observational record and model predictions, are apparent. Three emission reduction options, designed to reduce the severity of particulate pollution episodes in Christchurch, are simulated. When both domestic open-hearth fires and all coal burning are removed, the 24 h average peak concentration is reduced by 55%. The number of guideline exceedences of PM10 in the modelled period is reduced from five to one. Removing open-hearth fires results in 42% reduction in PM10 concentration, resulting in three exceedences of the guideline, and removing coal-burning fires yields a 32% reduction in PM10, resulting in four exceedences of the guideline.