15-year simulation of ozone in Baltimore using SIPM

The objective of this study is to develop, evaluate, and apply the ozone prediction capability of the semi-empirical integrated pollution model (SIPM). SIPM is a source–receptor model that can be used to estimate the diurnal maximum ozone concentrations (DMOC). For this study, SIPM was applied to create a Base Case, 15-year (1981–1995) simulation of the DMOC for the Essex site in Baltimore, MD. The Base Case was used as part of a sensitivity analysis that examined the changes in the DMOC due to prescribed NOx and VOC point and area source emission changes. It was noted that decreasing point or area source NOx emissions up to 75% increased the number of 1-h exceedances relative to that found in the Base Case, and that decreasing total anthropogenic VOC emissions by as little as 6% decreased the number of 1-h exceedances by almost 50%.