A comparison of techniques to produce quantile estimates of heavy rainfall in arid and mountainous environments: a test case in western Texas

The popularity of Weather Bureau Technical Paper No. 40 has set a precedent in the scientific community regarding the use of the Gumbel distribution to derive quantile estimates (return periods) of heavy rainfall. Recent research, however, suggests that other techniques may be more appropriate, with best alternatives varying between regions. Since little attention has been given to arid and mountainous environments in this regard, western Texas is used as a test case for evaluating the performance of several techniques that produce quantile estimates of extreme rainfall events. Kolmogorov–Smirnov results suggest that the Huff–Angel method is best in this region. However, when the data are examined in more detail, results are mixed, and there is a suggestion that the Southern Regional Climate Center Method is perhaps most appropriate.