Development of a seasonal forecast model for Kuwait winter precipitation

Winter rainfall in Kuwait is important to a variety of activities in the region, and accurate forecasts a season in advance would serve many useful functions. In this investigation, we develop a statistical forecast model that explains over 70% of the variance in Kuwait winter precipitation. Regional sea surface temperatures and several teleconnection indices provide the key predictor variables. These six variables are all well documented in terms of their contributions to moisture, instability, and a triggering mechanism in the atmospheric circulation. The predictor variables are all easily obtained making the model highly operational