Application of a statistical water-table model reveals connections between dunes and vegetation at Doñana

We present a simple statistical model of the water-table fluctuations based on a set of multiple regressions for a dune slack of the Doñana National Park, and its utility to understand some ecological processes. The variation in the coefficients of the regressions for different locations allows discrimination between different zones in the dune slack, and explains the spatial pattern of heath vegetation observed in the stabilized sands. Model simulations were compared with an existing sparse data set of water-table levels, and suggests possible mechanisms responsible for the catastrophic pine tree mortality, which happened during the drought of 1979–83.