Application of an ecosystem model for aquatic ecological risk assessment of chemicals for a Japanese lake

The Lake Suwa version of the comprehensive aquatic systems model (CASM_SUWA) was developed using field data from Lake Suwa and evaluated to examine the utility of CASM_SUWA for assessing the ecological risk of chemicals for aquatic ecosystems. The calibration of the parameters for the model provided that the established reference model simulation could reproduce complex seasonal biomass behavior of populations that were not significantly different from the general seasonal pattern for the Lake Suwa ecosystem. The sensitivity analyses revealed the potential importance of indirect effects and demonstrated that the parameter values of all the trophic levels were important in determining the biomass of each trophic level in the model. The risk estimation of linear alkylbenzene sulfonates (LAS) demonstrated that the model estimated the risks of direct toxic effects on each population and the indirect ecological effects that propagate through the food-web in the model ecosystem. The CASM_SUWA-derived benchmark levels were approximately one order of magnitude less than the field-derived NOECs in literature. The analyses of the comparison implied that the model could provide a good basis in determining an ecological protective level of a chemical of concern in aquatic ecosystem. This modeling study demonstrated that the model can be used to provide additional information for the decision-making process in the management of the aquatic ecological risk of chemicals.