The expected number of hospitalisations and beds needed due to pandemic influenza on a regional level in the Netherlands

In order to minimise the effects of a potential influenza pandemic on the population, regional authorities in the Netherlands are in the process of development of a plan to be prepared to cope with mass illness and to ensure health care services. The objective of this study is to calculate the expected numbers of hospitalisations and the maximum number of beds needed per day on a regional level. As many uncertainties are involved in this type of studies, we have performed a scenario analysis of the expected number of hospitalisations and beds needed during an influenza pandemic. The analysis gives insight into the impact of the pandemic in terms of how many will be hospitalised, how many beds are needed during the pandemic and in the effect of a possible intervention by therapeutic use of antivirals in terms of hospitalisations and beds needed. It can be concluded that our scenario analysis will be helpful in designing and planning on a regional level.