Predicting self-reported health: the CORDIS study

Background. There have been few attempts to determine factors important in predicting subsequent self-reported health (SRH) in population studies of men or women. Methods. In the following study, we determine the predictive value of behavioral and biomedical risk factors for self-evaluated health 7.7–11.5 years later in 2,962 male industrial workers. Results. We found that age [odds ratio (OR) per 10 YEARS = 1.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.30,1.74], current smoking (OR = 1.63, 95% CI = 1.23,2.16), higher systolic blood pressure (SBP) measurements (OR = 1.16 per 10 mm Hg, 95% CI = 1.03,1.31), use of chronic medications (OR =2.75, 95% CI = 2.03,3.71), diabetes mellitus (OR = 2.83, 95% CI = 1.73–4.63), low educational status (OR = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.23, 2.25), and lack of regular leisure sports activity (OR = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.04, 2.17) significantly added to a logistic regression model predicting poorer self-evaluated health 7.7–11.5 years later ]area under the receiver–operator curve (ROC) = 76.0%]. There was a trend for poorer self-rated health in the obese workers (OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 0.97–2.01). Conclusions. Behavioral and biomedical risk factors for mortality predict self-evaluated health 7.7–11.5 years later.