Using past and present habitat to predict the current distribution and abundance of a rare cryptic lizard, Delma impar (Pygopodidae)

We present logistic regression models predicting the distribution and abundance of a threatened cryptic lizard, Delma impar (Pygopodidae), in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). The models incorporate current habitat and historical land use and habitat change (woodland clearance, ploughing, grazing, fertilizer application). Information on historical land use was acquired from land survey maps, aerial photographs and from floristic indices of land management. Floristic indices were developed from a survey of local agronomists who scored individual plant species, responses to grazing, ploughing and fertilizer application. Floristic indicies proved to be more informative than floristic ordination analyses. It emerged that historical factors were of key importance for predicting the distribution and abundance of D. impar. Since European settlement, D. impar has apparently spread from primary (naturally treeless grasslands) into secondary grasslands (grassland formerly with an overstorey of trees) and has been locally excluded by some farming activities such as ploughing. We conclude that a combination of current habitat and past changes in habitat may be necessary to understand the current distributions of plant and animal species that have limited dispersal ability and that are susceptible to local temporary habitat destruction. Active conservation strategies involving, for example, assisted dispersal, may be important for these species.