The implications of poaching for giant panda conservation Original Research Article

Poaching giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) for their skins is a serious threat to the persistence of wild giant panda populations in China. An individual-based, age-structured stochastic simulation model was constructed to give a quantitative analysis of the effects of poaching. The model takes a total wild population of 1216 individuals divided among 16 ‘patches’. The model treats individual populations as being completely independent, with no dispersal, and density-dependence only enters into the model through local carrying capacity of patches. The model simulates three types of poaching: deterministic (constant) poaching, stochastic poaching with normal distribution and stochastic poaching with observed distribution. Results showed that, with a given initial population, poaching adult females produces lower average population size and higher average percentage extinction than poaching adult males or young. At the same poaching intensity, all three poaching simulations predicted a similar probability of extinction. However, they predicted different average population size and percentage extinction because of differences in the parameters in the three models. These results should therefore be treated with caution when constant poaching simulation or stochastic poaching with assumed normal distribution is used as a simplification of realistic poaching. Nevertheless, the results imply that giant pandas are threatened by any reduction in natural populations. Effective measures are essential to reduce poaching. It is also important to limit the capturing of wild animals for zoos or breeding facilities as this also has a serious effect on the total population.