The proportion of immature breeders as a reliable early warning signal of population decline: evidence from the Spanish imperial eagle in Doñana

Methods to evaluate population trends have recently received particular attention because of perceived declines in several species during the 20th century. We investigated whether age at first breeding could be used as an “early warning signal” to detect possible changes in population trends in long-lived species with deferred maturity using data from the Spanish imperial eagle (Aquila adalberti) population in Doñana National Park (Spain). This bird of prey is an endangered species that has suffered a rapid decline in this population during the last 10 years. As a result of our 27-year monitoring (1976–2002) study, we detected that an increase in immature breeding birds occurred before population decline became evident. The proportion of immature-plumaged breeders in the population was significantly higher during the period of decline than during the period of stability. In our case, more than 10% of immature breeders can be considered as an “early warning signal” that anticipates population decline. Owing to the ignorance of this warning signal, urgent actions for the recovery of this eagle population started 10 years later than necessary, and when population size had been reduced.