The Use of Reliability Techniques to Predict the Recovery Rate of Recovering Alcohol Addicts

In this article, we describe a new means of presenting and analyzing information regarding recovering alcoholics. We show that the use of reliability life-test techniques—specifically Weibull plots—can be used not only to gain an understanding of the recovery rate of alcoholics who are undergoing counseling during their recovery process, but also to present a visual indication of the speed and nature of their recovery. We show that by considering the movement of the recovering addicts with time—as a direct analogy with the degradation of samples on device life-test—it is possible to predict the time and path that will be taken for a recovering addict to reach a given recovery stage. We also show that, in a direct analogy with overstress life-tests, it is possible to predict the “time to recovery of addict” based upon the time taken to reach a “part-way” recovery step (or stage). The results also show that those presenting with different addiction types follow varying recovery models as do those from different locations. This information could be particularly useful in providing appropriate support to those recovering from multiple addictions as well as those living in different locations. The results of this work have great potential for use in this and any other therapeutic interventions, and in medical applications such as the observed stepwise recovery from major operations and RTAs (road traffic accidents). Hence the results of this work have the potential to affect the health of the nation by enabling appropriate patient support, and, by the ensuing cost-effective support, enable the maximum number possible of patients to be supported by the limited resources of the centralized health-care umbrella.