A present value test of habits and the current account$

Forecasts derived from standard intertemporal current account (ICA) models generally fail to match the volatility of actual current accounts. This paper offers a solution to the ‘‘excess volatility’’ problem of standard ICA models by incorporating consumption habits into the standard model. The model, as developed in the paper, shows that significant habit formation implies increased current account volatility, as sluggishness is introduced into the consumption adjustment process that follows income shocks. A theory-consistent measure of the degree of habit formation is estimated using GMM. The estimated habit parameter is found to be statistically significant in six of eight quarterly samples. r 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.