Autoregressive processes; Bootstrap; Simultaneous prediction intervals; Bonferroni inequality; AIC

A number of industrialized and developing countries agreed to the terms of the Kyoto protocol to conserve energy and reduce emissions. The close relationship between energy consumption and real GDP growth suggests that energy conservation policies are likely to affect real GDP growth. In this paper, the possible impact of energy conservation policies on the New Zealand economy is examined and compared with Australia and several Asian economies. Causality between energy consumption and GDP in New Zealand is investigated as is the causal relationship between GDP and various disaggregate energy data (coal, natural gas, electricity and oil). Based on the energy data used, it appears that energy conservation policies may not have significant impacts on real GDP growth in industrialized countries such as New Zealand and Australia compared to some Asian economies.