Dynamic fitness landscapes: expansions for small mutation rates

We study the evolution of asexual microorganisms with small mutation rate in fluctuating environments, and develop techniques that allow us to expand the formal solution of the evolution equations to first order in the mutation rate. Our method can be applied to both discrete time and continuous time systems. While the behavior of continuous time systems is dominated by the average fitness landscape for small mutation rates, in discrete time systems it is instead the geometric mean fitness that determines the systemʹs properties. In both cases, we find that in situations in which the arithmetic (resp. geometric) mean of the fitness landscape is degenerate, regions in which the fitness fluctuates around the mean value present a selective advantage over regions in which the fitness stays at the mean. This effect is caused by the vanishing genetic diffusion at low mutation rates. In the absence of strong diffusion, a population can stay close to a fluctuating peak when the peakʹs height is below average, and take advantage of the peak when its height is above average.