Avalanche prediction in Abelian sandpile model

We study the simple two-dimensional height sandpile model. The action of adding one grain of sand to a randomly chosen node as the first, we calculate the step-by-step probability of occurrence of avalanches of a given size. An avalanche determination method is devised that allows to determine exactly the different avalanches that can take place and the corresponding probabilities of occurrence in each step of the evolution of the sandpile.