The probability of alpha-mode containment failure Original Research Article

Since the original quantification of the likelihood of α failure in NUREG/CR-5030, major experimental and analytical developments have taken place. By taking advantage of these developments, we believe it is possible to reduce the substantial conservatisms in the original quantification, and to thus conclude that even vessel failure by steam explosions may be regarded as physically unreasonable. We have illustrated how this can be done within the original framework, as well as in a complementary framework that takes advantage of current integral analysis capabilities. On this basis, the α-failure issue is now ripe for final resolution; what is needed is a complete set of calculations supporting a revised quantification of CR1 and CR3 and a final review step in the ROAAM process.