Multitarget Bayes filtering via first-order multitarget moments

The theoretically optimal approach to multisensor-multitarget detection, tracking, and identification is a suitable generalization of the recursive Bayes nonlinear filter. Even in single-target problems, this optimal filter is so computationally challenging that it must usually be approximated. Consequently, multitarget Bayes filtering will never be of practical interest without the development of drastic but principled approximation strategies. In singletarget problems, the computationally fastest approximate filtering approach is the constant-gain Kalman filter. This filter propagates a first-order statistical moment - the posterior expectation - in the place of the posterior distribution. The purpose of this paper is to propose an analogous strategy for multitarget systems: propagation of a first-order statistical moment of the multitarget posterior. This moment, the probability hypothesis density (PHD), is the function whose integral in any region of state space is the expected number of targets in that region. We derive recursive Bayes filter equations for the PHD that account for multiple sensors, nonconstant probability of detection, Poisson false alarms, and appearance, spawning, and disappearance of targets. We also show that the PHD is a best-fit approximation of the multitarget posterior in an information-theoretic sense.