A field-based population model for the sediment toxicity test organism Leptocheirus plumulosus: II. Model application

A stage-structured population model has been developed for the estuarine amphipod Leptocheirus plumulosus to provide interpretive guidance for sediment toxicity tests with this species. This time-varying, field-based model includes several matrices to reflect seasonal changes in demographics. In this paper, we conduct sensitivity analysis of the model to identify which life history parameters have the greatest potential impact on population growth rate (λ). Results indicate seasonal variability in the relative demographic importance of vital rates. Over winter, annual population growth is most sensitive to the persistence of juveniles and adults and growth from the juvenile to the adult stage. In spring and fall, changes in fecundity are likely to have large effects on population dynamics. In addition, we demonstrate the applicability of the model by using it to interpret toxicological data from an assessment of sediment contamination in Baltimore Harbor, MD. The model was parameterized with survival data from acute toxicity tests with L. plumulosus to project effects on population growth rate (λ). Results of these model simulations indicate that relatively small changes in survival can result in large changes in λ, indicating high risk to benthic populations. Furthermore, population projections mirror observed abundances of L. plumulosus at the test sites. These analyses provide a first indication of the usefulness of the Leptocheirus population model as a tool for exploring ecological effects of sediment contamination.