Tool life prediction for cup shaped cold forgings with fuzzy language risk analysis and fuzzy inference

A method of Die-life prediction is suggested for cup shaped forgings.Authors theorize that forge specialists can make die-life prediction by comparing a “target” forging process” with other standard processor whose actual life are known. The authors make comparison by calculation of risk (that which shortens die-life span). Risk is estimated by using a risk tree network, based on information compiled from a survey of forge experts. The risk rate of an “end node” is estimated by a computer-aided forging process planning system. Comparing dimensions of the target and standard forging processes has effect on the risk rate. Once risk is determined, it is used to predict dielife span using Fuzzy inference. The Fuzzy inference rule is estimated based on data received from the interview of experts.