Loss-of-load probability model for stand-alone photovoltaic systems in Europe

Sizing of stand-alone photovoltaic systems (SAPVS) requires knowledge of their reliability. Because of primary influence of the solar irradiance and meteorological conditions, simulations are the best way to compute an accurate reliability for a given location and fixed sizing parameters. These studies have been developed for more than two decades, but have had a narrow geographical applicability. In this paper, we perform a complete (in time and space) simulation of a standard SAPVS in Europe using 23 year radiation data corresponding to almost 2300 geographical points. At each point, the tilt angle that maximizes the energy reaching the PV array in December is estimated and the relation among sizing parameters and reliability is computed for wide ranges of values. Finally, multilayer perceptrons are trained for both computations, allowing (after their training) simple and fast estimations of the sizing parameters of this type of plants for any location in Europe. The procedure presented in this paper, although focused particularly in Europe, can be easily extended to almost any other region in the world.