Abstract :
Seismic hazard assessment is a basic tool for rational planning and designing in areas of different
seismic activity. The Bayesian probability estimation was applied in this study to assess seismic hazard.
The estimation procedure provides a posterior probability distribution that integrates prior estimates
based on the knowledge of the process, and the likelihood of occurrence based on historical data. The
Bayesian approach was applied to calculate the probability that a certain cut-off magnitude would be
exceeded at certain time intervals in different regions of Iran. The results for the cut-off magnitude of 6.5
indicate that the highest probability of seismic hazard exists in the Alborz, Kopeh-Dagh, Bandar-Abas,
Kerman, and Zagros regions. The seismic hazard is lowest for the EsfahanSirgan region, the Arabian
Platform, the Persian Gulf, and Kavir in Central Iran. The comparison between the Bayesian results and the
seismotectonic models of Iran reveals that it is possible to partition the spatially distributed epicenters
of earthquake events into different regions. In general, these regional divisions agree with previously
proposed seismotectonic provinces of Iran.
