Time Series Models for Salinity and Other Environmental Factors in the Apalachicola Estuarine System

In this study, statistical structures of several key environmental variables in the Apalachicola Bay area are investigated based on daily averages over a 45-month sampling period. Univariate time series models are established for Apalachicola River discharge, local rainfall, transformations of wind speed and wind direction, Apalachicola Bay salinity and water-level fluctuations measured at two stations. Rational form transfer function models, which take into account time-lagged effects of environmental variables and serial correlations of the salinity series, are developed to describe the relationship between salinity and other factors. Compared with time-lagged multiple regression models, transfer function models explain a much larger proportion of salinity variability and give more accurate estimates of the environmental effects.Copyrigt 1998 Academic Press Limited