Qualitative modelling for the Caeté Mangrove Estuary (North Brazil): a preliminary approach to an integrated eco-social analysis

The sustainability of different integrated management regimes for the mangrove ecosystem of the Caete´ Estuary (North Brazil) were assessed using a holistic theoretical framework. As a way to demonstrate that the behaviour and trajectory of complex whole systems are not epiphenomenal to the properties of the small parts, a set of conceptual models from more reductionistic to more holistic were enunciated. These models integrate the scientific information published until present for this mangrove ecosystem. The sustainability of different management scenarios (forestry and fishery) was assessed. Since the exploitation of mangrove trees is not allowed according Brazilian laws, the forestry was only included for simulation purposes. The model simulations revealed that sustainability predictions of reductionistic models should not be extrapolated into holistic approaches. Forestry and fishery activities seem to be sustainable only if they are self-damped. The exploitation of the two mangrove species Rhizophora mangle and Avicenia germinans does not appear to be sustainable, thus a rotation harvest is recommended. A similar conclusion holds for the exploitation of invertebrate species. Our results suggest that more studies should be focused on the estimation of maximum sustainable yield based on a multispecies approach. Any reference to holistic sustainability based on reductionistic approaches may distort our understanding of the natural complex ecosystems.