Application of a 3-D chemical fate prediction model (FATE3D) to predict dioxin concentrations in the Tokyo Bay

A 3-D chemical fate prediction model (FATE3D) was applied to predict the dioxin concentrations in the seawater of Tokyo Bay, Japan. The simulations were carried out for a period of one year (from September 2002 to August 2003). Parameters such as meteorological data, flow field conditions, concentrations and sinking rates of organic particulate matter, initial and boundary conditions, and loading fluxes and physicochemical properties of dioxins were used as the model inputs. The simulation results compared favorably with the field measurements of dioxin concentrations in the bay for both the particulate and dissolved phases, indicating the validity and predictive capability of the model. Furthermore, the differences in the seasonal cycles and distributions between the particulate- and dissolved-phase dioxins in the bay were estimated from the simulation results. However, the particulate-phase dioxin concentrations in the bottom layers (þ1 m from the bottom) were underestimated, probably because the resuspension process was not taken into account in the model. The improvement of the model’s predictive capability, including the resuspension process, shall be the focus of our next study.