Increasing nutrient concentrations and the rise and fall of a coastal fishery; a review of data from the Nile Delta, Egypt

There is a conceptual basis, and some empirical evidence, that increasing nutrient loads to coastal waterbodies will initially increase ecosystem productivity up to a threshold, beyond which secondary productivity and fishery yields will decline. Here we have compiled data from the Egyptian and international literature for fish landings and inorganic nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) data from four large coastal lagoons (63–500 km2) on Egyptʹs Nile Delta to provide evidence for the initially positive, but then negative, response of fishery yields to increased nutrient supply across a very wide range of enrichment (up to 1 mM dissolved organic nitrogen, DIN). Taking the data from the four lagoons as an aggregate, fish landings increase with increased nutrients up to a peak in landings at approximately 100 μM DIN, beyond which there was an exponential decline in landings. It appears that pesticide and heavy metal contamination and overfishing played only minor roles in the lowered fishery yield at highest DIN concentrations. We do not have sufficient evidence about the specific mechanisms that led to the decline of the fishery, but suspect that some feature of eutrophication—low oxygen, for example, may have been involved.