GEOFBUG: a geographical modelling environment for assessing the likelihood of pest development

This paper describes software designed to explore pest phenology (development) over space and time. The framework presented links sequences of interpolated daily maximum and minimum temperatures with a variety of process-based phenology and accumulated temperature models. The flexibility offered by this approach is demonstrated using examples of gridded maps of pest phenology on target dates, graphs of the sequences of pest development at individual locations and assessments of error in the predicted dates over the course of a model run. Finally, the potential application of the software in support of agricultural management systems, policy development and integrated research is discussed