Comparison of Penman–Monteith and non-linear energy balance approaches for estimating leaf wetness duration and apple scab infection

Leaf Wetness Duration (LWD) is the main parameter involved in the apple scab development in apple orchards. LWD values can be inferred from weather conditions by solving a non-linear energy balance equation. Such energy balance equation is usually linearized leading to the Penman–Monteith equations. However this approximation leads to significant errors in the evaporative term and by consequence in the LWD computation. In this work, consequences of the use of the Penman–Monteith equations instead of the exact solution were firstly investigated on single droplets and compared to experimental values obtained in controlled and constant conditions. For these studies, the LWD is overestimated by 12% when Penman–Monteith equations were used. The ability of LWD estimate from the linearized energy balance equation to forecast risk infection of a leaf by V. inaequalis conidia was investigated. For some conditions, the error in LWD estimate by Penman–Monteith approached 6 h, leading to an incorrect risk assessment of apple scab development.