The paradox of oil reserve forecasts: The political implications of predicting oil reserves and oil consumption

In the light of the outstanding importance of hydrocarbons for global energy, the controversy over peak oil has become both pressing and emotionally charged. Two conflicting parties – alarmists and optimists – hold irreconcilable positions. The shaping of the future energy policy is presently based on modeling results and geological considerations only. We show that the existing predictions of the energy crisis are increasingly mixed-up with value-judgments. The value analysis of those forecasts allows us to suggest that at least part of the estimations are implicit reflections of predictors’ ends and values, and do not demonstrate a real ability to anticipate future conditions. Paradoxically, the question of oil reserves depletion is better understood when predictions are viewed as an instrument to impose the predictors’ values and intervene in the currently bustling oil market. The intervention in the oil prices may occur in either direction becoming a tool to justify values rather than an instrument for the acquisition of knowledge.