Pricing of Contracts for Difference in the Nordic market

The purpose of this paper is to give an introduction to, and a pricing analysis of a new forward locational price differential product, Contracts for Difference (CfD), introduced the 17th of November 2000 at Nord Pool—the Nordic electricity exchange. To our knowledge there is no literature available of how the Nordic CfDs are priced. The CfD is a forward market product with reference to the difference between the future seasonal Area Price and System Price. By using available historical trading prices and spot prices for four seasonal contracts and one yearly contract, we analyze the relationships between the contract prices and the value of the underlying asset. For the first four seasonal contracts it appears that CfDs traded at Nord Pool are mostly over-priced relative to the underlying asset. Pricing theory for forward contracts explains this by the presence of a majority of risk-averse consumers who are willing to pay a risk premium for receiving the future price differential. We utilize statistical analysis with regard to the contract prices and the underlying asset, and find some interesting relationships. The analysis is preliminary due to the fact that the CfD market is relatively new.