New sources will drive global emissions

Nearly all policy initiatives to mitigate climate change have adopted the cap and trade approach, perhaps because this approach has worked so well for reducing SOx and NOx from existing power plants in the US. However, new sources, not existing sources, will be primarily responsible for global CO2 emissions in the 21st century, since new sources provide for growth and replace existing sources at the end of their useful lives. Hence, policy initiatives should be designed for new sources rather than for existing sources, and cap and trade may not be the best approach.