Differing perspectives of major oil firms on future energy developments: An illustrative framework

This study develops a framework to analyse the perspectives of major oil firms in terms of their perceptions of current energy developments and projections of future energy potentials, and illustrates their views on the possibility of a paradigm shift in fuel use. The three Aʹs themes—availability of resource (AV), applicability of technology (AP) and acceptability by society (AC)—make up the analytical framework. Divergence in oil firms’ behaviour and perspectives are captured by the 3-A triangle that illustrates how the four largest oil firms in the world balance their stakes among the three Aʹs. ExxonMobilʹs position is markedly skewed towards the theme of AV, whilst BP has the most balanced approach among the four. Shell and Total both share a similarly shaped 3-A triangle with more stakes placed on the theme of AP. The results would imply that a paradigm shift in resource use or a full-scale transition to a backstop technology is unlikely in the coming decades.