Inefficient and opaque price formation in the Japan Electric Power Exchange

This study examines whether the spot prices in the Japan Electric Power Exchange are efficiently formed from April 3, 2006, to March 31, 2012, using the conventional and rank-based variance-ratio tests. The results seem to reject the efficient market hypothesis in the market. Moreover, by applying Granger-causality tests, this paper investigates whether the power price is determined from the information of primary energy and exchange markets that directly affect the cost of power generation. The results indicate no Granger-causality from the prices of oil and gas and the exchange rate to the price of electricity. Finally, this paper discusses the factors that lead to inefficient and mysterious price formation.