How policies affect international biofuel price linkages

We estimate the role of biofuel policies in determining which country is the price leader in world biofuel markets using a cointegration analysis and a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model. Weekly prices are analyzed for the EU, US, and Brazilian ethanol and biodiesel markets in the 2002–2010 and 2005–2010 time periods, respectively. The US blenderʹs tax credit and Brazilʹs consumer tax exemption are found to play a role in determining the ethanol prices in other countries. For biodiesel, our results demonstrate that EU policies – the consumer tax exemption and blending target – tend to determine the world biodiesel price.