Abstract :
One of the objectives of OPEC is the security of demand for the crude oil exports of its members. Achieving this objective is imperative with the projected decline in OECD countriesʹ crude oil demand among other crude oil demand shocks. This paper focuses on determining the external crude oil demand security risks of OPEC member states. In assessing these risks, this study introduces two indexes. The first index, Risky Energy Exports Demand (REED), indicates the level of energy export demand security risks for OPEC members. It combines measures of export dependence, economic dependence, monopsony risk and transportation risk. The second index, Contribution to OPEC Risk Exposure (CORE), indicates the individual contribution of the OPEC members to OPECʹs risk exposure. This study utilises the disaggregated index approach in measuring energy demand security risks for crude oil and natural gas and involves a country level analysis. With the disaggregated approach, the study shows that OPECʹs energy export demand security risks differ across countries and energy types.
