Estimation on oil demand and oil saving potential of Chinaʹs road transport sector

China is currently in the stage of industrialization and urbanization, which is characterized by rigid energy demand and rapid growth of energy consumption. Therefore, energy conservation will become a major strategy for China in a transition to low-carbon economy. Chinaʹs transport industry is of high energy consumption. In 2010, oil consumption in transport industry takes up 38.2% of the countryʹs total oil demand, of which 23.6% is taken up by road transport sector. As a result, oil saving in Chinaʹs road transport sector is vital to the whole nation. The co-integration method is developed to find a long-run relationship between oil consumption and affecting factors such as GDP, road condition, labor productivity and oil price, to estimate oil demand and to predict future oil saving potential in Chinaʹs transport sector under different oil-saving scenarios. Monte Carlo simulation is further used for risk analysis. Results show that under BAU condition, oil demand of Chinaʹs road transport sector will reach 278.5 million ton of oil equivalents (MTOE) in 2020. Oil saving potential will be 86 MTOE and 131 MTOE under moderate oil-saving scenario and advanced oil-saving scenario, respectively. This paper provides a reference to establishing oil saving policy for Chinaʹs road transport sector.