Climate change impact: Mapping thermal stress on Carrara marble in Europe Original Research Article

The impact of climate change on monuments and historic buildings is addressed for the first time, in terms of modelling and predicting thermal stress on stone in Europe over the next century. While the effect of changing climate on frost in porous materials and on surface recession of carbonate stone, has recently been treated, prediction of the future evolution of thermal stress on stones still requires elucidation. The present paper provides maps showing future scenarios of thermal stress on Carrara marble for the 21st century, using the output data from the Hadley general and regional climate models in the European window. The work carried out made it possible to forecast in the near and far futures (i.e. 2010–2039, 2070–2099) the number of events per year of thermal stress in marble greater than 20 MPa, the latter being adopted as the maximum sustainable load for this specific material. The data demonstrate that the Mediterranean area will continue to experience the highest level of risk from thermal stress, with more than 300 events/year predicted in the 2070–2099 period. In addition, Central Europe will be more affected by thermal stress during the present century compared to the baseline period, 1961–1990, taken as reference.